Study Warns Autonomous Taxis May Pose Higher Risks on New York Streets

A new analysis released Monday by Open Plans and the Sam Schwartz Transportation Research Program at Hunter College suggests that the introduction of autonomous robotaxis to New York City could result in a higher frequency of fatal and serious injury crashes compared to the city's current for-hire vehicle (FHV) fleet.

Researchers compared national safety data from Waymo against local performance metrics for taxi and app-based drivers compiled by the city’s Taxi and Limousine Commission and the Department of Transportation. While the study noted that robotaxis are involved in fewer minor collisions overall, the data indicated they are 1.5 times more likely to be involved in incidents resulting in death or serious injury per one million miles traveled.

"We really wanted to dig into the safety question before [autonomous vehicles] are deployed in New York City," said Kelly McGuinness, director of the Sam Schwartz Transportation Research Program. The authors argued that professional for-hire drivers maintain a high safety standard, which could be compromised by the transition to automated systems.

Beyond safety, the report raised concerns regarding urban congestion. By analyzing operational patterns in San Francisco, researchers projected that robotaxis would likely spend significant time "deadheading," or driving without passengers, while struggling to find parking in New York’s dense environment. This could exacerbate existing traffic issues in areas like the Central Business District.

Waymo representatives have formally challenged the study’s findings. Ethan Teicher, a spokesperson for the company, characterized the methodology as "not scientifically sound," citing concerns over the consistency of crash data definitions and the validity of applying performance metrics from other cities to the unique environment of New York.

This debate follows the expiration of a pilot program in March 2026, which had allowed Waymo to test vehicles with human safety drivers in Lower Manhattan and Downtown Brooklyn. The administration of Mayor Zohran Mamdani opted not to renew the permit.

In light of their findings, the study authors recommended that city officials consider implementing strict regulations for autonomous vehicles, including potential bans in high-density zones and the introduction of specific fees to manage the impact of automated fleets on city infrastructure.